How forced change can become an opportunity. Learning from COVID-19

First published in April 2020

Sometimes there are very good reasons to keep things the way they are: tradition and heritage, protecting quality and craft, or the good old "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

However, once in a while milestone events force change upon us. No one will argue against COVID-19 being one of them; even from the confinement of lockdown one can see the incoming swarm of changes our lives will be presented with. Maybe for now this looks like a looming cloud, but within it we could find seeds of opportunity.

This short article is only meant to help shifting perspective from doom and gloom and help us reflect on the learning and innovation we can gain from a global crisis like the one we are living in.

It is worth remembering that most big leaps forward in human history - in fact, in the history of our universe - were sprung by unexpected events, often catastrophic in their nature. Taleb calls them "Black Swans". FYI, COVID-19 isn't one of them, for it was entirely preventable in my opinion. But back to the point, few foresaw the impact of things like the motor car, personal computers or even the internet. It should make you feel good that not even the "experts" can see these coming.

Case in point, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, whose prediction about the internet became a lifelong meme.

There are many more examples of outliers and "fat tails" destroying forecasts and bell curves, so why don't we look at the principle of adaptation to try and identify strategies for renewal and refocus?

Let's narrow it further: With #covid19 ripping apart conventional methods of fulfilling supply and demand flows, I noticed old fashioned methods resurfacing. A few examples:

• Small shop in a village in North Italy with no internet or email address offering free deliveries within the council postcodes on phone order.
• Grainger Market in Newcastle offering delivery of most of the stalls' produce with very reasonable rates and selection.
• Main wine merchant in the UK suggesting people to phone their local branch for stock and arrange drop deliveries.

At a personal level, what can you do differently in your interaction with your peers, suppliers, and most importantly - customers - to nurture relationship and assure best results?

• Work collaboratively and focus on survival first, strategy planning next, and leave disputes as last resort.
• Avoid "winner takes all" situations in which the share of the pie is often shrunk and value is destroyed. Strive for the opposite and widen the reach of the interaction for best mutual value generation.
• Focus on networks. Roles, companies and economic landscapes change, but people and culture don't move as fast. Before you burn bridges, assure you can swim. A favour or a bit of advice today will help someone who will remember. If they don't, it's entirely their loss. You will have learned something anyway.
• Finally, use failure as a cathartic moment, a spark which should ignite your enthusiasm for challenges and new ideas. When Sylvester Stallone auditioned for movie roles, he was rejected over a thousand times. So, he revised. Instead of auditioning for roles that others created, he decided to create his own role to star in. 

I will leave you with something I found inspiring while reading HBR: Barksdale's three rules of business. “One, if you see a snake, shoot it. Two, don’t play with dead snakes. And three, everything looks like a snake at first.”

I like to think that opportunities at first can look a lot like snakes.

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https://hbr.org/2014/06/dont-play-with-dead-snakes-and-other-management-advice 

https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/sylvester-stallone-on-fighting-for-what-you-want